What is the Literary Digest?
The Literary Digest was an influential American general interest weekly magazine published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion . Beginning with early issues, the emphasis was on opinion articles and an analysis of news events.
Who edited the Literary Digest in the 1920s?
After Isaac Funk's death in 1912, Robert Joseph Cuddihy became the editor. In the 1920s, the covers carried full-color reproductions of famous paintings. By 1927, The Literary Digest climbed to a circulation of over one million. Covers of the final issues displayed various photographic and photo-montage techniques.
Why is Walter Lippmann credited with spurring the growth of polling?
Understand why people vote the way they do Why is Walter Lippmann credited with spurring the growth of public opinion polling? Lippmann wrote a book which he observed that research on public opinion was far too limited, especially in light of its importance. Which error occurs due to the level of motivation of those being polled?
What can make it difficult to conduct and interpret public opinion polls?
Negative information about a candidate's opponent One of the difficulties of conducting and interpreting public opinion polls is, what? The lack of public interest in many political issues In a close election, the, what, can make it difficult to make accurate predictions?
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Which of the following is the best indicator that the results of a public opinion poll may be unreliable quizlet?
Which of the following is the best indicator that the results of a public opinion poll may be unreliable? The sample size is 100 people. American public opinion on foreign policy is usually volatile and dependent on breaking information because ______.
What was the main problem associated with the polling methods of the Literary Digest quizlet?
The primary problem associated with the polling methods of the Literary Digest was that its respondents were not randomly selected.
Why did the Literary Digest poll fail quizlet?
The size of the sample was too big so that the margin of error in the poll was not precise. The ballots were sent out too early and failed to capture any late-breaking trends. You just studied 10 terms!
What did Literary Digest do in 1936 which demonstrated the flaws in polling public political opinions quizlet?
The Literary Digest made a fatal error in sampling in 1936. The people they chose to interview were drawn from telephone directories and lists of automobile owners.
What is the primary goal of a push poll?
The main advantage of push polls is that they are an effective way of maligning an opponent ("pushing" voters toward a predetermined point of view) while avoiding direct responsibility for the distorted or false information suggested (but not directly alleged) in the push poll.
Why do double barreled questions make it difficult to evaluate the public's opinion on an issue?
Double-barreled questions make it difficult to evaluate the public's opinion on an issue because it is difficult to know which part of the question respondents are replying to.
What was wrong with the 1936 Literary Digest poll quizlet?
Why were they so wrong about the actual result of the election? In 1936 the Literary Digest had polled a sample of over 2 million people based upon telephone and car registrations. The results they obtained predicted Landon would win in a landslide with over 57% of the popular vote.
What was the issue in the Literary Digest poll in 1936?
Presidential poll In 1936, the poll concluded that the Republican candidate, Governor Alfred Landon of Kansas, was likely to be the overwhelming winner against incumbent President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
What is straw poll?
A straw poll, straw vote, or straw ballot is an ad hoc or unofficial vote. It is used to show the popular opinion on a certain matter, and can be used to help politicians know the majority opinion and help them decide what to say in order to gain votes.
Which of the following best reflects the reason why Literary Digest was incorrect in its prediction of the 1936 presidential election quizlet?
Which of the following best reflects the reason why Literary Digest was incorrect in its prediction of the 1936 presidential election? It had not obtained a random sample of the population, and its readers were generally wealthy and not reflective of the population at large.
When was the first public opinion poll taken?
The first straw polls The first instance of what we now call an opinion poll is generally considered to have been held in July 1824. The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian, a local newspaper in Pennsylvania's capital, conducted a survey in Wilmington, Delaware.
Who correctly predicted the 1936 election quizlet?
In 1936, the Literary Digest conducted a poll in order to predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election. A majority of those who responded to the poll (57%) said they were going to vote for Republican Alf Landon rather than for Democrat Franklin Roosevelt.
Who invented the scientific polling method?
That same election year, George Gallup, an advertising executive who founded the American Institute of Public Opinion, initiated the scientific polling method that is still used today in the prediction of election results.
Who won the most popular vote in 1964?
history – the highest percentage of the popular vote went to Lyndon Johnson in 1964. “In the greatest demonstration of public confidence and appreciation ever awarded a President, the voters of the United States of America swept Franklin Delano Roosevelt ...
Should forecasters ignore data?
“A forecaster should almost never ignore data, especially when she is studying rare events like recessions or presidential elections, about which there isn’t very much data to begin with. Ignoring data is often a tip-off that the forecaster is overconfident, or is overfitting her model—that she is interested in showing off rather than trying to be accurate.”
Or How Not to Predict The Outcome of A Presidential Election
It’S Not The Size of The Sample...
- Based on the poll, The Literary Digestpredicted that Landon would win the 1936 presidential election with 57.1% of the popular vote and an electoral college margin of 370 to 161. In fact, Roosevelt won the election with 60.8% of the popular vote (27,751,841 to 16,679,491) and an electoral college landslide of 523 to 8 (the largest ever in a preside...
An Unprecedented and Unexpected Landslide
Building A Better Polling Method